The Willow Project — A $9 Billion Bet on Long-Cycle Alaska Production

The Willow Project is the largest single capital investment in ConocoPhillips' portfolio, a 600 million-barrel oil development on Alaska's North Slope inside the National Petroleum Reserve. It's also the most controversial — environmentally, politically, and financially. Cost has climbed to $8.5–9 billion, peak production targets 180,000 bpd, and first oil is now expected in early 2029. This module unpacks why Willow exists, why it matters, and how it shows up in conversations about long-cycle thinking, capital discipline, and political risk management.